Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) weekly average oil prices since July this year, a record high of 138 U.S. dollars a barrel after the beginning all the way down, the minimum fell to 45.4 U.S. dollars per barrel, OPEC is nearly 3-year and a half weeks to an average oil price The lowest point. As for the availability of an agreement to curb the drop in oil prices the expected results, but also on a number of other factors: First, OPEC's execution.
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) weekly average oil prices since July this year, a record high of 138 U.S. dollars a barrel after the beginning all the way down, the minimum fell to 45.4 U.S. dollars per barrel, OPEC is nearly 3-year and a half weeks to an average oil price of The lowest point. Recently, Venezuela and Iran, OPEC members once again called on the organization to take measures to cut daily output of at least 1,000,000 barrels per day. 24, the rotating chairman of OPEC, Algerian Oil Minister Khalil Abha Sha said that OPEC is likely in the December 17 held a special ministerial meeting to take further measures to cut. In fact, the recent OPEC has cut oil output by 150 million barrels, why in such a short period of time, a series of measures taken to cut?
Dong Xiucheng: At present, the loan-to-time by the United States triggered a crisis of the financial crisis has spread to the real economy, the global economic slowdown. Against this background, oil on the one hand, the decline in consumer demand, tight oil market supply and demand no longer exists; on the other hand, investment banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions in the financial crisis hit by the financial markets, including oil futures market The elimination of much speculation. These two factors led to the oil price in such a short period of time show all the way down the situation, has now fallen to less than 50 U.S. dollars a barrel, oil-producing countries that this is unacceptable to us. OPEC member countries of the economic structure of a single generally, financial dependence on oil revenue more. Long-term adverse oil price sluggish in its economic development and the realization of national interests and must take measures to stabilize oil prices.
Algeria in the middle of next month, OPEC held a special ministerial meeting is to reach a unanimous agreement of the production? If an agreement is effective in inhibiting the fall in oil prices?
Dong Xiucheng: The meeting reached a production agreement should be no problem. OPEC's mission is to be set up through the harmonization and unification of petroleum policies of member countries and to identify the most appropriate means to protect their respective and common interests. Under the present circumstances, a limited price is the inevitable choice. In November, OPEC has cut its daily output of 150 million barrels, but still could not contain the decline in oil prices. So they will certainly take another approach to reduction of supply and demand changes to make the pick-up in oil prices.
As for the availability of an agreement to curb the drop in oil prices the expected results, but also on a number of other factors: First, OPEC's execution. OPEC is a loose structure of the organization, to reach an agreement, there are a number of countries may not be strictly observed. Second, non-OPEC members will contribute to the achievement of price limits. In addition to the members of the OPEC countries, Russia, Mexico and Norway, and other major oil-producing countries of the coordination is also very important. Norway and other Western support for non-OPEC oil producing countries have always adopted a limited way to protect the price should not be co-ordinated efforts. Russia's drop in oil prices, Mexico's domestic economy against a lot of these countries may cut support. As the OPEC oil-producing countries and between non-OPEC oil producers have not yet established a coordination mechanism, limited the effect of price may be affected. But we must also recognize that if OPEC production again after the fall of the inhibitory effect of oil prices is not obvious, between the oil-producing countries likely to join hands together to find a mutually acceptable solution.
Please tell us about the OPEC member states. Rise in oil prices in the stage of the country to elevate the strength of Venezuela, Iran and other countries in the organization plays a role in what?
Dong Xiucheng: the use of oil resources in accordance with national attitude, OPEC is divided into two schools, one of the more radical "hawks" in order for the representative of Iran and Venezuela, before the Iraq war also belong to the faction. There is one more moderate "doves" to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and other countries represented. "Hawks" stressed that oil is a strategic weapon, "doves" is more the oil industry as a pillar of the national economy, compared with pro-US foreign policy. In recent years, as climbing oil prices, OPEC members increased revenue. "Hawks" is to make full use of their own oil-exporting countries, to expand the international influence in the political arena, and in the United States and other Western countries, the dialogue also made some of the initiative. However, OPEC, the two factions have been seeking to maintain a balanced relationship, especially now in the doldrums in the oil price on both sides of the adverse circumstances. Break the current plight of the joint is the primary task, it is difficult to say which faction gained the upper hand.
What do you think oil prices in the coming period will be how fluctuations?
Dong Xiucheng: In July this year, oil prices reached a high point, Goldman, Sachs & Co. will have inferred oil prices rose to 180-200 U.S. dollars per barrel. At that time, I predicted that by 2009, oil prices will fall back to between 80-100 U.S. dollars. In fact, the drop in oil prices beyond the range of everyone's expectations. At present, even though international oil prices hit a new low in recent years, but it will not be a normal low, the return of 80-100 U.S. dollars per barrel between the rational price is inevitable.
I think that the pick-up in oil prices for three reasons: First, although the financial crisis, the dollar rose adversity, the world's major currencies have rebounded, but the lack of economic fundamentals support a strong state is not sustainable , Once the weak dollar will drive pick-up in oil prices; the second, taking into account the economic costs of oil and oil-producing countries dependent on oil revenues, these countries will do everything possible to let oil prices remain at their acceptable Within the framework; Third, the world's major economies one after another to save the market, these funds to rescue the market is very difficult to guarantee full access to the real economy. With the inflow of funds of which a considerable portion of the resources products market, speculation will be further enhanced.
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) weekly average oil prices since July this year, a record high of 138 U.S. dollars a barrel after the beginning all the way down, the minimum fell to 45.4 U.S. dollars per barrel, OPEC is nearly 3-year and a half weeks to an average oil price of The lowest point. Recently, Venezuela and Iran, OPEC members once again called on the organization to take measures to cut daily output of at least 1,000,000 barrels per day. 24, the rotating chairman of OPEC, Algerian Oil Minister Khalil Abha Sha said that OPEC is likely in the December 17 held a special ministerial meeting to take further measures to cut. In fact, the recent OPEC has cut oil output by 150 million barrels, why in such a short period of time, a series of measures taken to cut?
Dong Xiucheng: At present, the loan-to-time by the United States triggered a crisis of the financial crisis has spread to the real economy, the global economic slowdown. Against this background, oil on the one hand, the decline in consumer demand, tight oil market supply and demand no longer exists; on the other hand, investment banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions in the financial crisis hit by the financial markets, including oil futures market The elimination of much speculation. These two factors led to the oil price in such a short period of time show all the way down the situation, has now fallen to less than 50 U.S. dollars a barrel, oil-producing countries that this is unacceptable to us. OPEC member countries of the economic structure of a single generally, financial dependence on oil revenue more. Long-term adverse oil price sluggish in its economic development and the realization of national interests and must take measures to stabilize oil prices.
Algeria in the middle of next month, OPEC held a special ministerial meeting is to reach a unanimous agreement of the production? If an agreement is effective in inhibiting the fall in oil prices?
Dong Xiucheng: The meeting reached a production agreement should be no problem. OPEC's mission is to be set up through the harmonization and unification of petroleum policies of member countries and to identify the most appropriate means to protect their respective and common interests. Under the present circumstances, a limited price is the inevitable choice. In November, OPEC has cut its daily output of 150 million barrels, but still could not contain the decline in oil prices. So they will certainly take another approach to reduction of supply and demand changes to make the pick-up in oil prices.
As for the availability of an agreement to curb the drop in oil prices the expected results, but also on a number of other factors: First, OPEC's execution. OPEC is a loose structure of the organization, to reach an agreement, there are a number of countries may not be strictly observed. Second, non-OPEC members will contribute to the achievement of price limits. In addition to the members of the OPEC countries, Russia, Mexico and Norway, and other major oil-producing countries of the coordination is also very important. Norway and other Western support for non-OPEC oil producing countries have always adopted a limited way to protect the price should not be co-ordinated efforts. Russia's drop in oil prices, Mexico's domestic economy against a lot of these countries may cut support. As the OPEC oil-producing countries and between non-OPEC oil producers have not yet established a coordination mechanism, limited the effect of price may be affected. But we must also recognize that if OPEC production again after the fall of the inhibitory effect of oil prices is not obvious, between the oil-producing countries likely to join hands together to find a mutually acceptable solution.
Please tell us about the OPEC member states. Rise in oil prices in the stage of the country to elevate the strength of Venezuela, Iran and other countries in the organization plays a role in what?
Dong Xiucheng: the use of oil resources in accordance with national attitude, OPEC is divided into two schools, one of the more radical "hawks" in order for the representative of Iran and Venezuela, before the Iraq war also belong to the faction. There is one more moderate "doves" to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and other countries represented. "Hawks" stressed that oil is a strategic weapon, "doves" is more the oil industry as a pillar of the national economy, compared with pro-US foreign policy. In recent years, as climbing oil prices, OPEC members increased revenue. "Hawks" is to make full use of their own oil-exporting countries, to expand the international influence in the political arena, and in the United States and other Western countries, the dialogue also made some of the initiative. However, OPEC, the two factions have been seeking to maintain a balanced relationship, especially now in the doldrums in the oil price on both sides of the adverse circumstances. Break the current plight of the joint is the primary task, it is difficult to say which faction gained the upper hand.
What do you think oil prices in the coming period will be how fluctuations?
Dong Xiucheng: In July this year, oil prices reached a high point, Goldman, Sachs & Co. will have inferred oil prices rose to 180-200 U.S. dollars per barrel. At that time, I predicted that by 2009, oil prices will fall back to between 80-100 U.S. dollars. In fact, the drop in oil prices beyond the range of everyone's expectations. At present, even though international oil prices hit a new low in recent years, but it will not be a normal low, the return of 80-100 U.S. dollars per barrel between the rational price is inevitable.
I think that the pick-up in oil prices for three reasons: First, although the financial crisis, the dollar rose adversity, the world's major currencies have rebounded, but the lack of economic fundamentals support a strong state is not sustainable , Once the weak dollar will drive pick-up in oil prices; the second, taking into account the economic costs of oil and oil-producing countries dependent on oil revenues, these countries will do everything possible to let oil prices remain at their acceptable Within the framework; Third, the world's major economies one after another to save the market, these funds to rescue the market is very difficult to guarantee full access to the real economy. With the inflow of funds of which a considerable portion of the resources products market, speculation will be further enhanced.
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