Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Early warning of macroeconomic index in October fell to 94.7 a 6-year low

yesterday the central bank reduced interest rates 108 basis points add radiance to each other, the latest statistics released by China's macro-economic index and the October consumer confidence index continued to drop for several months. ZHANG Yong-jun of the view that the consumer confidence index fell, reflecting the people's dissatisfaction with current income as well as the future revenue expectations are also down.

And the central bank yesterday reduced interest rates 108 basis points add radiance to each other, the latest statistics released by China's macro-economic index and the October consumer confidence index continued to drop for several months. The October index fell to 94.7 macro-economic early warning, a 6-year low.

The index of industrial production-"blue light"

Data show that China's macro-economic warning in October index of 94.7. According to the National Bureau of Statistics measured approach to early warning indicators of economic operation of the state is divided into 5-level, "red lights" that the economy overheating, "yellow"-hot economy, said, the "green light" that the economy has been operating normally, "blue light" That cool the economy, "blue light" that the economy cooled. The level of 94.7, still in the "green zone."

However, the index is still set in October 2002 to a record low since, in September of 105.3 has dropped by 10.6. China highlights of the current economic situation is not optimistic. It is worth noting that constitute the early warning indicators of the 10 sub-indexes, the deterioration of the index of industrial production. The September index is still in the "green zone", but in October has been "light blue light."

State Information Center, senior economist Yong-Jun Zhang told reporters, said: "This confirms the change in industrial enterprises, such as steel, cement industry investment, sales are not busy market realities."

The consumer confidence index falling in March

What is even more worrying is that the revenue showed a "blue light", that is, cooling, said. November 13 the Ministry of Finance released the latest revenue and expenditure shows that in October this year, the first time in our national monthly year-on-year negative growth in fiscal revenue last year fell 0.3 percent. The central financial situation was worse in the same period last year dropped by 8.4 percent.

Zhang Yongjun believe that the real estate market downturn to reduce the local fiscal revenue is bright "blue light" one of the reasons why. In addition, China's import market by the international financial crisis led to the import value-added tax, consumption tax are drastically reduced, the revenue is too cold even more important indicator of the root causes. "This may be our country next year to implement a proactive fiscal policy, must have a binding effect." Zhang Yongjun said.

Yesterday announced the consumer confidence index for 3 months decreased from 93.4 in September dropped to 92.4. In addition, the economic situation reflects the consumer's satisfaction with the satisfaction index from the Sept. 90 fell to 89.8, reflecting the consumer's economic prospects over the next few months is expected to expectations index, from 95.6 in September fell to 94.2. ZHANG Yong-jun of the view that the consumer confidence index fell, reflecting the people's dissatisfaction with current income as well as the future revenue expectations are also down.

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